Florida TaxWatch released its latest economic outlook projecting that Florida will add roughly 2.3 million residents between 2026 and 2035 and continue to outperform the national economy in terms of growth. However, compared to its previous forecast, TaxWatch has downgraded expectations for several key indicators, citing global instability, rising energy costs, and uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Population growth is still expected to climb from 23.8 million in 2026 to just over 26 million by 2035, with daily net migration gradually slowing from about 895 people a day to 689. Despite economic headwinds, Florida continues to attract new residents thanks to its business climate, lack of a personal income tax, and favorable weather.
The labor market presents a less favorable picture. While total employment is expected to grow from 10.1 million workers to 11.3 million over the next decade, TaxWatch now expects unemployment to rise higher and remain elevated longer than previously forecast. The statewide unemployment rate is projected to peak at 4.8% in 2027, then gradually settle near 4.2% in the early 2030s. Income growth expectations have also been lowered. Per-capita personal income is still projected to rise from roughly $88,000 in 2026 to more than $126,000 by 2035, but overall income projections declined by an average of 10.3% compared to the prior forecast.
Tourism represents the biggest downgrade in the outlook. TaxWatch's growth expectations for visitor numbers have fallen by an average of 45.3% since the previous report, making tourism the sector most affected by current headwinds. Visitor counts are still expected to increase each year, but the pace of growth is projected to slow dramatically, bottoming out at just 0.8% in 2027. Despite this slowdown, Florida's broader economic output is expected to perform relatively well. Real GDP growth will slow from 2.5% in 2026 to 1.9% in 2027 before rebounding above 3% for much of the following decade.
The primary uncertainty shaping TaxWatch's outlook centers on Middle Eastern geopolitics. The watchdog group repeatedly points to uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a quarter of the world's seaborne oil passes, as the single biggest factor influencing its projections. If energy markets stabilize, the group suggests many of its more pessimistic assumptions could ease, potentially allowing Florida to avoid a rougher economic ride. The overall message from the report frames Florida as resilient but not immune to broader economic pressures.