Florida will gain approximately 2.3 million residents between 2026 and 2035 while continuing to outpace national economic growth, according to a new economic outlook from Florida TaxWatch. The state's population is expected to grow from 23.8 million in 2026 to just over 26 million by 2035. Despite these gains, daily net migration will gradually decline from about 895 people per day to 689. Florida's appeal remains strong thanks to its business climate, absence of a personal income tax, and favorable weather, allowing the state to attract new residents even as economic headwinds persist.
The latest TaxWatch report reflects significant downgrades compared to previous forecasts. The organization cited global instability, rising energy costs, and uncertainty regarding the Strait of Hormuz as primary concerns. The statewide unemployment rate is projected to peak at 4.8% in 2027 before gradually settling near 4.2% in the early 2030s. Per-capita personal income is still expected to increase from roughly $88,000 in 2026 to more than $126,000 by 2035, but overall income projections have declined by an average of 10.3% from the prior forecast. Total employment will grow from 10.1 million workers to 11.3 million over the decade.
Tourism experienced the steepest downgrade of any sector, with visitor growth expectations falling by an average of 45.3% since the previous report. Visitor numbers are still projected to increase annually, but growth rates will slow dramatically, reaching just 0.8% growth next year. This represents the most significant impact from current economic uncertainties on Florida's major industries.
Florida's broader economy is expected to weather these challenges without major disruption. Real GDP growth will decelerate from 2.5% in 2026 to 1.9% in 2027, then rebound above 3% for much of the following decade, which actually represents an improvement compared to TaxWatch's previous forecast. According to the report, the single biggest variable shaping the outlook is uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately a quarter of the world's seaborne oil passes. Should energy markets stabilize, many of the more pessimistic assumptions in the forecast could improve. If not, Florida residents may face a more challenging economic path ahead.