Florida TaxWatch released a new analysis showing the state's economic and population growth will decelerate over the next decade amid challenging economic headwinds. The report indicates that maintaining the strong economic expansion Florida has experienced in recent years will become increasingly difficult. The unemployment rate has climbed every month in 2026, reaching 4.8% in April according to FloridaCommerce, the state's economic development bureau. This rate exceeds the national unemployment rate of 4.3%, signaling labor market weakness ahead.
While gross domestic product growth will remain strong and outpace the rest of the nation through 2030, the labor market presents a greater concern. The report projects that GDP growth will experience some sluggish phases next year, with unemployment and income growth rates both expected to decline. The analysis acknowledged that the full economic consequences of the war with Iran remain uncertain. Despite these headwinds, Florida's economy expanded to $1.87 trillion in 2025, and projections suggest expansion will continue into coming years due to expected population growth in 2026. According to the report, if Florida were an independent nation, its economic output would rank 13th globally.
Population growth, while continuing, will occur at a slower pace than recent years. Currently, Florida experiences a net migration of 895 more people moving into the state daily than leaving. That daily net influx is projected to drop to 689 over the next decade. Florida's population, now approximately 23 million people, is expected to grow by roughly 2.3 million by 2035. Jeff Kottkamp, CEO and President of TaxWatch, stated that "Florida's economy is now set to return to pre-pandemic growth rates over the next five years, after experiencing high economic growth in the past three years."
Despite the projected slowdown, some optimistic signs emerge from the forecast. Kottkamp noted that while Florida entered 2026 with strong growth trends and ranked number one in terms of economic strength, the organization continues to question whether the state's impressive growth rate can sustain over the coming years. He added that "Florida's economic outlook, while hampered by current global events, still reflects some of the signs for optimism it gleamed at the end of 2025." The economic forecast represents part of TaxWatch's quarterly analysis of factors influencing Florida's economy, providing a comprehensive view of both challenges and opportunities ahead.