Republicans have built a voter registration advantage of more than 1.5 million in Florida. As of May 31, Florida had about 5.54 million active registered Republicans and 4.03 million Democrats, according to the state Division of Elections. Another 3.32 million voters were registered without a party affiliation. Republicans remain at or above the two-thirds threshold needed for supermajority power in both legislative chambers. A two-thirds majority amounts to 80 of the 120 House seats and 27 of the 40 Senate seats when every member is present.
Gov. Ron DeSantis defeated Democrat Charlie Crist by roughly 19 percentage points in 2022. Two years later, Trump carried Florida over Kamala Harris by about 13 points, the largest Republican presidential margin in the state since 1988. Political analyst Susan MacManus said Democrats must generate enthusiasm among supporters who have skipped recent elections while also winning a sizable share of unaffiliated voters. Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried said the party has seen an advantage in requests for vote-by-mail ballots and has more than 3,000 volunteers working through the Pendulum Project, a year-round organizing operation designed to maintain voter contact between major elections. Democratic leaders argued late in the 2024 cycle that Florida was competitive, but the promised surge did not translate into enough votes.