Jolly has pointed to a June Change Research survey commissioned by Freedom Project USA, a group aligned with Democrats, that showed him ahead of Donalds. The poll found Jolly leading 47% to 42% among registered voters and 49% to 43% among likely voters. However, respondents were shown prepared descriptions of both candidates before being asked whom they supported, making the results less directly comparable to a standard, unprompted ballot test. The survey reported a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points. Other polling has shown Donalds ahead of Jolly, and an average compiled earlier this summer placed Donalds narrowly in front.
Donalds continues to hold a commanding advantage in Republican polling and fundraising, while Jolly has consolidated support in the Democratic contest. A Tyson Group survey released this week placed Donalds at 48%, followed by Collins at 9%, businessman James Fishback at 8% and former Florida House Speaker Paul Renner at 4%. About 26% of respondents remained undecided. Lt. Gov. Jay Collins used a Thursday campaign call to argue Donalds could struggle in a general election, though Collins trails the congressman in polling, money and endorsements. Florida's voter registration deadline is July 20, with the primary set for August 18.