Florida's Republican gubernatorial primary stands at a decisive tilt five days before the Aug. 18 election, with U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds holding a commanding lead while Democrats appear near settling their nomination. A James Madison Institute survey released in August placed Donalds at 49 percent among likely Republican primary voters, followed by Lt.
Gov. Jay Collins at 18 percent, former House Speaker Paul Renner at 8 percent and investor James Fishback at 4 percent. Twenty-one percent remained undecided.
Donalds, who secured President Donald Trump's endorsement, centered his closing message on affordability and promised to lower Florida property insurance costs through changes to the state's Catastrophe Fund, reinsurance system and home hardening programs. He called the property tax amendment headed to voters only a first step and argued that faster permitting could reduce housing and construction costs. Donalds told reporters he feels confident about his position but acknowledged the outcome remains in voters' hands.
Collins escalated his attacks in a lengthy virtual news conference, casting himself as a day-one ready Florida executive and Donalds as a Washington celebrity disconnected from working families. Collins proposed tighter insurance oversight, faster claims and storm permitting, expanded home hardening and the eventual elimination of property taxes on homesteaded homes.
He called the Republican contest a two-person race and urged Renner, Fishback and other candidates without viable paths to rally behind him, though recent public polling consistently shows Donalds leading by wide margins. Gov. Ron DeSantis appointed Collins lieutenant governor in August 2025 but has not endorsed anyone in the race to succeed him.
On the Democratic side, former Republican congressman David Jolly held 47 percent in the latest JMI survey, with no other Democratic candidate topping 5 percent. His running mate Gwen Graham cast her ballot at Florida A&M University and described the ticket as centrist and moderate, with an agenda focused on housing affordability, education and healthcare access.
Florida had nearly 3.33 million voters registered with no party affiliation as of July 31, while Republicans held a registration advantage of more than 1.5 million over Democrats. The latest JMI survey showed Donalds leading Jolly 45 to 38 percent in a potential general election matchup. The primary is Aug. 18, and the general election is Nov. 3.