National Democrats spend nearly $8M in Florida as seven races shift their way

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is spending nearly $8 million this week to defend Rep. Kathy Castor and other Florida incumbents after independent forecasters shifted seven Florida congressional races toward Democrats, raising fresh questions about whether the Republican mid-decade redistricting will produce its intended gains in November.

The national party spending includes ads in Castor's Tampa-area 14th District, putting resources behind an incumbent Republicans targeted with new boundaries drawn to create as many as four additional GOP seats. Democrats have called the redraw a potential dummymander, a partisan map that backfires on the party that designed it.

Inside Elections moved Castor's race to a toss-up on Sept. 17, following an earlier shift from lean Republican to tilt Republican. The forecaster rated the district solid Democratic before the redraw. Fox News and 22 Power Rankings shifted seven Florida congressional races toward Democrats, including Rep.

Jared Moskowitz's 25th District race from toss-up to lean Democratic and Republican Rep. María Elvira Salazar's 27th District race from likely Republican to lean Republican. Fox attributed the changes largely to national polling favoring Democrats and movement toward the party among Hispanic voters.

Political consultant Michael Worley warned during the April redistricting debate that Republican advantages on paper might not translate into November victories. Worley, CEO of MDW Communications, pointed to uncertainty surrounding voters who had backed Republicans in previous elections. Gov.

Ron DeSantis defended the redraw in August, calling it a good map while acknowledging a different political environment from 2022. This year they're winnable, but I think it's going to require some effort, DeSantis said of the four targeted seats.

The ratings changes do not establish that redistricting caused the movement, and seven shifts toward Democrats do not mean seven seats will change parties. Falling short of four Republican pickups would not, by itself, demonstrate that the map cost the GOP seats. Political scientist Susan MacManus said in a July 13 interview that Democrats would have to turn enthusiasm into votes.

Turnout is a huge issue. That's how you win elections, MacManus said.