U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds maintains a dominant position in Florida's Republican gubernatorial primary with fewer than three weeks remaining before the Aug. 19 election, buoyed by President Donald Trump's endorsement, superior name recognition and a significant financial advantage over his three main rivals. A political committee supporting Donalds this week released a statewide television and digital ad centered on affordability, showing Donalds playing basketball with his sons while promising to cut property taxes, lower insurance rates and reduce housing costs.
A public Cygnal survey conducted July 12-13 found Donalds leading with 43 percent, followed by investor James Fishback at 12 percent, Lt. Gov. Jay Collins at 11 percent and former House Speaker Paul Renner at 2 percent.
Another 31 percent remained undecided. The survey included 500 likely Republican primary voters and had a margin of error of 4.38 percentage points. Collins' campaign released an internal poll this week showing a closer contest, with Donalds at 46 percent and Collins at 30 percent, though public polling has generally shown Collins much farther behind.
Fishback won a courtroom victory this week after Leon County Circuit Judge David Frank rejected Collins' attempt to remove him from the ballot. Collins had pointed to Fishback's 2020 vote in Washington, D.C., his purchase of a condominium there and tax, mortgage and homestead records as evidence that Fishback had established residency outside Florida. Frank ruled that Collins failed to overcome Florida's legal presumptions favoring continued residency and candidate access to the ballot.
Fishback responded by calling on Collins to resign as lieutenant governor, calling the legal challenge an attempt to rig the election. Collins dismissed the demand and said his team had not yet decided whether to appeal.
Renner is using his closing campaign ads to emphasize his record as House speaker, including the expansion of school-choice programs and conservative legislation passed while he led the chamber. Vote-by-mail ballots have already been distributed for the Aug. 19 primary. Florida's mandatory early-voting period begins Aug. 8 and continues through Aug. 15, though counties may offer additional days. On the Democratic side, David Jolly is already focusing his attacks on Donalds, this week promising to halt new AI data-center construction until Florida develops stronger protections for its water supply, electric grid, communities and consumer privacy.