Republicans Build 40,000-Vote Lead in Florida Primary as Democrats Turn Out at Higher Rate

Republicans hold a 40,114-vote lead over Democrats in Florida's primary election with less than a week before Election Day, even as Democrats vote at a significantly higher rate relative to their party registration, according to Fresh Take Florida's statewide turnout tracker.

As of 3:30 p.m. Wednesday, more than 1.3 million Floridians had already voted. Republicans accounted for 585,423 ballots compared with 545,309 Democrats.

Another 177,542 ballots came from voters outside the two major parties. Republicans enter this election with a registration advantage of roughly 1.54 million voters, with 5.6 million registered Republicans and 4.06 million Democrats. Democrats still lead in mail ballots, with 409,358 Democrats voting by mail compared with 356,500 Republicans, a Democratic lead of 52,858 ballots. Republicans have overwhelmed that advantage at early voting sites, where 228,923 Republicans have voted early in person compared with 135,951 Democrats, a GOP advantage of 92,972 votes.

When turnout is measured against the size of each party, 13.43 percent of registered Democrats have voted compared with 10.45 percent of registered Republicans, almost a three-percentage-point Democratic advantage. About 10.08 percent of registered Democrats have already voted by mail compared with 6.37 percent of Republicans. Republicans have the edge in early in-person participation, 4.09 percent to 3.35 percent.

Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried said the political environment is shifting and argued the Republican supermajority in the Legislature is breakable this cycle. Republican Party of Florida Chair Evan Power said Republicans have taken the vote lead and will not look back, predicting a big vote lead on Election Day.

Florida's primary Election Day is August 18, with the state's mandatory early voting period continuing through Saturday, August 15. Political analyst Susan MacManus said enthusiasm only matters if campaigns can turn it into votes. For Democrats, the challenge is proving that dissatisfaction over affordability and the party in power can translate into enough turnout to overcome Florida's Republican registration advantage. For Republicans, it is showing that their larger voter pool and established turnout operation can dominate when all ballots are counted.